Historical Demand

Data on the demand for services is critical in identifying future needs.

Data on the community's influence on demand can be difficult or expensive to capture. However population based data are available, including:

• Government bodies for population, census, development plans etc
• Specialist agencies, eg Bureau of Meteorology, Roads and Transport
• Market research organizations
• Community groups.

Trends in population growth or shrinkage in a geographic region, for example, will be key in determining the location of future assets.

The analysis of historical information is particularly critical in planning for peak demands.

Cyclic or 'event' driven irregularities should be given particular attention, as shown below, and can include:

• Unusual weather conditions
• Step change in number of users, eg the opening of a new housing estate will change the electricity demand
• Economic conditions, eg government tax cuts may increase consumption/spending
• Legislative changes, eg introduction of water meters and user payment scheme
• Environmental guidelines, eg an education campaign to reduce waste and encourage recycling.

Some of these changes may be linked to the introduction of demand management strategies, whereas others are attributed to nature. It is the change in demand as a reaction to these events that must be considered as part of the historical analysis.